Co-integration and Causality Analysis of the Impact of Infectious Diseases on the Population in Food Poverty in Benue State, Nigeria
David Adugh Kuhe *
Department of Statistics, Joseph Sarwuan Tarka University, Makurdi, Benue State, Nigeria.
Kenneth Kevin Kadev
Department of Mathematics and Computer, Benue State University, Makurdi, Benue State, Nigeria.
Adekunle Adedotun Adeyelu
Department of Mathematics and Computer, Benue State University, Makurdi, Benue State, Nigeria.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Infectious diseases have become a global health challenge which threatens food production and agricultural activities leading to food insecurity and food poverty worldwide. The aim of this study is to empirically examine cointegration and causality inferences of the impact of infectious diseases on the population of people in food poverty in Benue State of Nigeria. The study employed annual secondary time series data from 1991-2022 on the population of people in food poverty as dependent variable and the number of persons infected with infectious diseases like HIV, tuberculosis, hepatitis B virus (HBV), malaria fever and typhoid fever as independent variables. The study employed Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, cointegrating regression analysis, vector error correction model (VECM) and Granger causality test as methods of investigation. The results show that all the study variables become stationary after first differencing. The study found a long-run stable equilibrium relationship among the study variables, implying that the variables share a common stochastic trend and is likely to move together over time without drifting apart. The cointegrating regression analysis reveals that infectious diseases have positive and significant impacts on the population of people in food poverty in Benue State. The findings of this study showed that HIV, tuberculosis, hepatitis B virus, malaria fever and typhoid fever increase the number of people suffering from food poverty in Benue State of Nigeria. The vector error correction model produced a high speed of adjustment of 99.99% towards achieving a long-run equilibrium state annually. The Granger causality tests indicate that all the infectious diseases studied significantly influence food poverty in Benue State. HIV was also found to Granger caused TB and hepatitis B virus (HBV) in Benue state. Feedback causality existed between malaria fever and typhoid fever in the study area. To combat infectious diseases and food insecurity, it is recommended that governments should strengthen disease prevention, integrate health and agricultural policies, improve rural healthcare, implement targeted food security programmes, and establish community-based disease surveillance systems for early outbreak response.
Keywords: Co-integration, food poverty, granger causality, infectious diseases, Benue State, Nigeria